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Not so long ago, it seemed that the Tiraspol administration, even if it did not want that the process of negotiations with Moldova be resumed, avoided to state it clearly, however. I had the feeling that there was a limit which they tried not to overstep. But now we ascertain that the concerned limit has been overstepped, however. I am talking about several statements Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov made over the last days. The most important of them were made public in an interview given to the Russian newspaper Kommersant and during a news conference he held in Tiraspol on 18 March. It is worth mentioning that Smirnov is trying to undermine the dialogue in the very moment when the Russian State Duma gives him clear hints: Moscow will not go the Kosovo road, and will not violate the international law norms.
But let's shift to details. In the interview given to the Russian newspaper, Igor Smirnov made a stunning statement: he says that had the Kozak Memorandum been signed, Transnistria would have been the one to lose! And it is Smirnov who says it, although until recently, he has been accusing Moldova of "thwarting the signing of the document able to settle the conflict." Neither had he missed any occasion to say that the Kozak Memorandum used to give Transnistria huge ambitions. Now we learn that, in reality, he is happy with the fact that the document was not signed. There could be only one conclusion: the Transnistrian leader does not want the conflict to be settled, no matter the conditions. Even if the settlement mechanism is put forward by Russia, just as it happened with the Kozak Memorandum.
Moreover, till the last moment, Smirnov had been affirming that he is loyal to the 5+2 format of negotiations. Presently, he stopped simulating loyalty. Within the news conference, Smirnov said that the 5+2 format is nothing but a consultative body! We do not know to what extent Russia, Ukraine, the USA, the European Union and the OSCE agree with Smirnov's statement, but one thing is certain though: Smirnov does his utmost in order impede the fulfilment of a proposal by Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin to resume negotiations in a session regime, i.e. before the sides and the other members of the format elaborate a final model of the conflict's settlement.
According to statements made by Smirnov at the news conference in Tiraspol, he proves his "commitment to principles" even in Moscow. During debates with Russian officials, he had reportedly hinted that the results of the referendum on independence (from September 2006) "do not allow him to deviate from the line set by his people." This means that Smirnov refuses to consider a model of settlement other than Transnistria's separation from Moldova. He also deemed as necessary to specify: "at present, the Transnistrian problem can no longer be settled by a mere agreement with Bush or Putin." He described the concerned variant as absurd, issuing thus a "tough" warning to the leaders of the two super-powers.
At the end of the news conference, Smirnov drew an extremely important conclusion from the viewpoint of those 18 years of his staying in power. After having failed to get Transnistria's recognition from at least one state, the concerned slogan can be removed from the agenda. And to make sure that this fact does not look like a failure of his policy, he says: "We have been actually recognized. We export our production to 78 countries worldwide... We have all the grounds for recognition. And we can be actually recognized, if some states would have been bold enough to do it." Further on, he explained that Russia is the country that should have more courage, adding that an official recognition is not so necessary. Nevertheless, Smirnov has a recipe of dialogue with Moldova. "The only thing which Moldova and Georgia can do for us is to recognize us," he said.
Presently, the process of negotiations on the Transnistrian problem is at the crossroads. It will be either resumed, or the conflict will destabilize the situation in the Eastern Europe further on. At present, we can no longer hope that the conflicting sides will reach an agreement, and will work out a joint decision which the mediators and observers will subsequently support. One of these sides openly recognizes that it does not want to come to an agreement, rejecting even the idea of resuming the negotiations. Moreover, neither does it recognize the format of negotiations. Therefore, the participants in the negotiating process should clearly express their position in this respect. A position which will prove the real intentions of all the participants in the geopolitical game called "Transnistrian problem."
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