Moldova: The Transdniester Issue |
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As the latest talks on the future of the breakaway Transdniester region end in deadlock, a solution seems as far off as ever. By Marian Chiriac in Bucharest The latest round of internationally mediated talks on holding free elections in Moldova's breakaway Transdniester region ended on December 16 with no apparent progress. The outcome was a disappointment to the European Union and United States, which for the first time joined longstanding negotiators from Ukraine, Russia and Moldova under the umbrella of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, OSCE. “The talks were very difficult and the result was supposed to have been considerably better," William Hill, head of the Moldovan OSCE mission, said. “The key point on the agenda was a fact-finding mission on organizing an election in Transdniester. No concrete agreements were reached on dispatching this mission,” he added. The talks, which had resumed after more than 15 months, focused on Ukraine's plan for free and fair elections to take place in Transdniester, a mainly Russian-speaking region that broke away from Moldova in 1992, shortly after the latter seceded from the Soviet Union. A short but bloody conflict followed, resulting in the deaths of more than 700 people before Russian troops intervened to end the fighting. Around 1,600 Russian soldiers and 20,000 tons of weaponry – the remnants of the Soviet 14th Army – remained behind as a security force in Transdniester, which has retained close links to Moscow. With a population of 600,000 on average annual incomes of only about 660 US dollars, the region is one of the poorest in Europe. Hill said the participants would draft a mandate on sending a team to Transdniester, to be presented at fresh talks in January. Agreement to do that was “still better than nothing”, he said. But in a frank acknowledgement of the deep divisions among the mediators over the future of Transdniester, he added that, “There are different notions on what constitutes democratic elections.” A root cause of the problem in Transdniester, a thin sliver of land in the east of Moldova, is Russia's consistent logistical backing for the separatist cause. Under de facto Russian military protection, the region has adopted many attributes of independent statehood, including a flag, a coat of arms (featuring a Soviet-era hammer and sickle), a president, a parliament, a police force and a court system. The one attribute it lacks is international recognition, which is why the authorities in the main city of Tiraspol staged their own parliamentary elections in early December. In the vote, 23 of the 43 seats in the local assembly went to the Renewal Movement, which is close to big business, and 20 went to the Republic Movement, which represents Transdniester's traditional leaders. Moldova and Western nations criticized the poll and, after failing to secure agreement to send observers, refused to recognize the result. Moldova, formerly an ally of Moscow but today hoping to join the EU, now openly blames Russia for the continuing deadlock. To complicate matters, the government in the Moldovan capital Chisinau also opposes the main thrust of a Ukrainian peace plan, which is to turn Moldova into a federal state and place Russia's “peacekeepers” under international supervision. Moldova wants the priority to be the withdrawal of Russian troops. Rejecting federalism, it has instead said that it is ready to grant separatists in Tiraspol legal autonomy and allow the region the right to retain its own symbols, such as a flag and anthem, as well as its own constitution. According to another Moldovan proposal early this year, Transdniester would be allowed to secede from Moldova only if the latter were to join another state. Before the Second World War, Moldova formed part of neighboring Romania. The break-away region, however, is under no real immediate pressure to give ground, in spite of the barrage of criticism it receives from Moldova and other states. Both Moldova and Ukraine accuse the local authorities in Tiraspol of engaging in smuggling. They also say – and many non-governmental organizations, NGOs, agree – that the government of Transdniester is essentially authoritarian and has a poor human rights record. Some NGOs say the right to free assembly and association is amongst those which is not fully respected. Most Moldovan experts see no light at the end of the tunnel unless there is a marked change in the attitude of both Moldova and the international community. "Moldova has to become more attractive for people in Transdniester region," Nicu Popescu, a Moldovan expert at the Centre for European Policy Studies, CEPS, in Brussels, told Balkan Insight. "Moldova should concentrate on political and economic reforms, strengthen its democracy and come closer to the European Union in political and economic terms," he added. "This will create a situation in which an increasing number of people in the breakaway region become willing to benefit from Moldovan citizenship." Popescu said the international community also needs to support greater openness and pluralism in Transdniester "and help reduce the benefits of the status quo for the corrupt actors who have benefited so far from Transdniester's de facto independence". Making it more difficult for those people to benefit from the situation there, "coupled with support for Moldova's efforts to get close to the EU will build a basis for meaningful talks on what kind of autonomy Transdniester should have in the future", Popescu concluded. Vladimir Socor, a senior analyst with the US-based Jamestown Foundation, said the only strategy in the meantime was to continue dialogue between Chisinau and Tiraspol under close international supervision. "The necessary steps towards a solution are a withdrawal of Russian troops, demobilization of Tiraspol's military and security forces and democracy-building in Transdniester," Socor said. Like most Moldovans, Socor wants internationally supervised elections in Transdniester to take place only within the Moldovan framework. He is deeply opposed to the plans of the OSCE and Ukraine for separate polls to go ahead under international supervision in Transdniester. "Separate elections… would be a travesty and [would] result in recognition of the Russian-installed authorities," he said. With no agreement on a common strategy towards Transdniester among the various international mediators, Tiraspol's separatist bosses can rest easy for the immediate future. - Focus English News
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